Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel

SimulAr focuses on the method called Monte Carlo Simulation to perform risk analysis. This method involves assigning frequency distributions to the variables of the model that carry risk and, subsequently, generating random numbers according to those distributions, thus "simulating" the behavior that is expected in the future. In this way, it is possible to add more realism to the model, obtaining more reliable results when making decisions or analyzing a problem.

Traditionally, risk analyses were performed by studying static and unidimensional scenarios, for example, a pessimistic scenario, a middle scenario, and an optimistic scenario, predicting only one result by varying the variables. SimulAr allows this approach to be greatly enhanced by adding dynamics to the study, obtaining not only the extreme points but also all the scenarios that lie in between. This allows, for example, estimating the probability that an investment project will be profitable.